Pending
“If Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil processing facility is hit in a meaningful way, 5 to 7 million barrels per day of Saudi crude supply will vanish from the global market for years.”
- Probability
- 50%"And if OB gets hit in any meaningful way, that's another 5 to 7 million barrels a day of crude that's will vanish from the market for years."
- Category
- energy
- Deadline
- May 19, 2026(implied)
- Made on
- April 7, 2026
More from Zeihan on Geopolitics
“Ebola will spread to at least one town in the United States by 2026-12-31.”
50% "Ebola may be coming to a town near you"Dec 31, 2026(implied)211d leftJun 1, 2026
Pending
Zeihan on Geopolitics· 67% accurategeopolitics
“The Trump administration will undertake significantly more actions like the described self-settlement slush-fund arrangement in the United States by 2026-07-08.”
70% "We should expect significantly more things like this"Jul 8, 2026(implied)35d leftMay 27, 2026
Pending
Zeihan on Geopolitics· 67% accurategeopolitics
“In calendar year 2026, this drone and electronic-warfare technology will spread globally and drive major new developments across multiple conflict theaters.”
65% "we're about to have some crazy stuff happen in calendar year 2026"Dec 31, 2026(implied)211d leftMay 25, 2026
Pending
Want to track more predictions?
Get notified when your favorite influencers make new predictions.
Get Early Access →